However, I can see that your math (Andy) is correct - if our assumptions are all reasonable, the online rate is higher for that network (although the b’cast absolute numbers are still a lot bigger). I don’t know how typical that network is, but we can stipulate that it is typical. If those rates hold as people switch over to streaming, that is good news. It’s not *great* news though, because it’s just not that much money for most people. There’s no ‘middle’ - just a long tail. You either get millions of streams and make real money on the backend, or you get peanuts. And when broadcast networks (as such) disappear, you won’t be getting those much higher sync/backend payouts anymore - they will just be streams like any other, presumably. As ML suggested in that cited thread, maybe it's time for everyone to get together and overhaul this system.
Anyway, looking back, I can see that I hadn’t grokked everything you were saying:
conventional royalties AFAIK are calculated on a "viewer" basis. Shows like Duck.... have a lot of viewers, and so if they play in prime time on big networks will get the highest royalties per viewer.
So the conventional royalty is based not just on the number of viewers, but successful shows get a higher royalty per viewer? So conversely, if you have a show few people watch, on a minor network, not only do you get a smaller royalty based on fewer viewers, but you actually get less per viewer too? Wow. If conventional royalty rates are not linear, then that messes with our above calculations doesn’t it?
This is an opaque subject! And we didn’t even get around to foreign royalties!!! Now I have a headache

Note: I have not watched this week's Taxi TV, which I believe addresses this general subject, so I'm going to go do that.