Forward/Return ratios, expenses, etc.

[Len911]

What's funny is that I was just about to watch lecture 2 in a 3 series lecture on social stratification.

Apparently it's more complex than only the three classes. More socioeconomic.

[mojobone]

Well ... This "poor guy" made a very aggressive bet on BIDU missing it's earnings over the summer. Turned $2,500 in put options into $10K in a matter of hours and closed the position. In the account, bam. Real, taxable money.

That said, I'm very willing to take risks. Especially with things with which I'm familiar.

Wish the music biz was that easy ...

I'm with you on that last bit, brother and also about the risk. My dad also said nothing ventured, nothing gained.

[Len911]

Well ... This "poor guy" made a very aggressive bet on BIDU missing it's earnings over the summer. Turned $2,500 in put options into $10K in a matter of hours and closed the position. In the account, bam. Real, taxable money.

That said, I'm very willing to take risks. Especially with things with which I'm familiar.

Wish the music biz was that easy ...

I'm with you on that last bit, brother and also about the risk. My dad also said nothing ventured, nothing gained.

I suppose it depends on how familiar, for example if the CFO made the same bet it might be considered insider trading, and the only risk involved was getting caught

[mojobone]

That kinda goes to my point about information asymmetry; all you need to know in order to understand that we're a nation of crooks, run by a bunch of crooks is that for members of Congress, insider trading is perfectly legal.

[Paulie]

Just be sure only to risk what you can afford to lose. There are plenty of YouTube videos out there of day traders losing their butts in seconds. Only take to Vegas the amount of money you can afford to lose. Only play the lotto if you are using extra cash to buy tickets, not your rent money.

Someone earlier said that it's a business when you start making money at it. I would change that to "successful business" at that point. Plenty of businesses are out there that are losing money, and most small businesses lose money in the early years. Amazon took 7 years to become profitable, and today it barely generates profit. Google also too seven years. Small businesses reach profitability at different times depending on the industry. I'm hoping for a 36 month break even with my Taxi efforts.

[PeterD]

I think the "unfair" part I mentioned earlier with reference to "the lottery" can be better understood this way:

Let's say you're the world's best composer/musician (except you're not discovered yet and not getting paid). This may be viewed as a bad example, but how many amazing, off-the-charts musicians have you experienced for the first time? Maybe seen one on youtube and thought, "who in the world is THIS and why aren't they famous!?!?!?"

Let's say you're this person, and write incredible material. You submit your material to listings and it fits the bill exactly. Unfortunately, some gate-keeper and his/her colleagues think the other material is more suited for the listing. Their personal taste, their mood, their health, how hungry they are, the day of the week, the equipment they're using, how much sleep they had last night, how tired their ears are, etc., all had a very big role in determining the winner. Sounds like "the dice" have a pretty significant part in this.

[Len911]

I think the "unfair" part I mentioned earlier with reference to "the lottery" can be better understood this way:

Let's say you're the world's best composer/musician (except you're not discovered yet and not getting paid). This may be viewed as a bad example, but how many amazing, off-the-charts musicians have you experienced for the first time? Maybe seen one on youtube and thought, "who in the world is THIS and why aren't they famous!?!?!?"

Let's say you're this person, and write incredible material. You submit your material to listings and it fits the bill exactly. Unfortunately, some gate-keeper and his/her colleagues think the other material is more suited for the listing. Their personal taste, their mood, their health, how hungry they are, the day of the week, the equipment they're using, how much sleep they had last night, how tired their ears are, etc., all had a very big role in determining the winner. Sounds like "the dice" have a pretty significant part in this.

All those things might be a big role for an amateur, but for a pro or someone who does a particular task over and over, depending on the particular role, not as much as it would seem, imo. For something that could go either way, sure I can see where mood or personal taste or something might make a difference. Lottery odds or the roll of the dice, are random mathematical determinants and the things you listed aren't an influence in that aspect.